Even
when it is easy to predict a trend in interest rates, choosing
not to lock in is a risk. That
is because, even in the middle of a trend, the daily fluctuations
of interest rates can be extremely volatile. Daily economic
news affects interest rates, sometimes dramatically.
For example, if more new jobs
were created in the previous month than the prognosticators
expected, that
could indicate the economy is speeding up faster than expected,
which could be inflationary. Interest rate markets fear
inflation. The day new employment figures are announced
(the first Friday of each month) rates could swing wildly to
the up side. A few days later the Purchasing Managers
Index might show a smaller number than expected and rates will
fall again.
You may reach a day when you
have to lock in -- because you cannot draw the loan documents
without locking
in a rate. That might be a day when rates are up, even
though they are trending downward. Locking in your rate
provides a nice safe guarantee -- providing you close on time. It
makes sense to build in a cushion because no one can guarantee
you will close on time, even though everyone tries their best.